We’ve got work to do, friends. It’s time to go earn that asterisk, signifying fantasy playoff qualification. Here’s a six-pack of stats to help you better understand the league ahead of a week in which winning is mandatory…
126.7 – Geno Smith‘s passer-rating on attempts traveling 20 or more yards downfield is a ridiculous 126.7. He’s attempted 43 deep shots on the season, completing 22 for 611 yards, a dozen touchdowns and only one interception. He leads all quarterbacks in TD passes on deep throws and he’s ninth in passing yards. Smith continues to lead the NFL in completion percentage on all throws (72.7), which is particularly impressive because he isn’t merely some check-down specialist; his DOT is a perfectly respectable 8.0.
56.8 – Last year, in the five games in which Tyler Huntley played over 80 percent of his team’s offensive snaps, he averaged 56.8 rushing yards and 208.4 passing yards per week. He ran for at least 40 yards in every game. Huntley’s per-game numbers from 2021 aren’t actually too far off Lamar Jackson‘s rates from this season entering Week 13: 68.6 rushing YPG, 202.8 passing. So if you grabbed Huntley off the wire, it’s not unreasonable to hope for a useful fantasy week.
55 – Keenan Allen ran a route on 55 of his snaps on Sunday against the Raiders, the highest total of the week among all receivers. He played 96 percent of the snaps for the Chargers, drew 14 targets and finished with six catches for 88 yards and this highlight score:
It seems safe at this point to say that Allen is fully operational, recovered from his various hamstring issues. He’s a decent bet to be the consolation bracket MVP.
48.0 – Kyle Allen started at quarterback for Houston in each of the past two weeks and the defenses that faced the Texans scored 48 total fantasy points in Yahoo default settings in those games. Allen threw four interceptions (including a pick-six), lost one fumble and was sacked five times. Both of the defenses that pummeled Houston in Weeks 12-13 finished as the highest scoring D/STs in fantasy. Sadly (for those of us starting the Dallas defense this week), the Texans are reportedly handing the controls back to Davis Mills.
42 – This is Alvin Kamara‘s highest single-game rushing total over the Saints last five games, and it happened back in Week 11. He’s averaged 2.9 YPC over that span, he’s fumbled twice and he hasn’t scored a touchdown. Personally, my favorite thing about fantasy in Week 14 is that Kamara isn’t involved in it because New Orleans is on bye. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately?), the Saints have a series of exceptionally friendly rushing matchups in the most important weeks of the fantasy season — Atlanta, at Cleveland, at Philadelphia — so we’re all gonna be tempted by Kamara until we’re eliminated from title contention.
17.26 – In games started by a quarterback who isn’t Zach Wilsonwe are getting 17.26 fantasy points per week from Garrett Wilson. On a per-game basis, that would make him the sixth highest scoring player at his position. Garrett is an absolute star, an excellent separator with exceptional after-the-catch ability. Look at this nonsense:
He was cooking Minnesota corners all afternoon. Wilson did every possible mean thing to Patrick Peterson short of filling out his retirement paperwork. He’s building an awfully strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year in a great class.