Sunday was another successful day in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and at Stadium Swim at Circa, where I took in the afternoon games and the Sunday nighter), especially as dogs kept barking in the NFL.
We won our Best Bet of the day on the Panthers +13 at the Ravens as they lost 13-3. They seemingly tried everything to give away the cover (I was willing to sell my soul for a push several times), but got the cash as double-digit dogs improved to 10-4 ATS (71.4%) on the season. After having our 6-day Best Bet winning streak snapped on Saturday, we improved to 11-2 ATS (84.6%) the last 13 days and 15-5 (75%) the first 20 days of November. We also won our other Sunday picks on the Colts +6.5 vs. the Eagles and Lions +3 at the Giants (both of which I actually gave out along with the Panthers last Sunday night on the “Greg Peterson Experience,” and which have been appearing in the VSiN update emails all week long). We also won with our top 2-team, 6-point teaser bet of the week on the Bills -1.5/Raiders +8.5 (don’t ask how our teasers fared with the Vikings +7.5 – we would’ve needed a 36- point teaser in their 40-3 loss vs. the Cowboys!). Our only other losing ticket on Sunday was on the Steelers +4 in their 37-30 loss vs. the Bengals. As we’ve said over and over this season on Peterson’s show and in these columns, parity is alive and well in the NFL and – even though favorites ended up going 7-5 ATS on Sunday – dogs are hitting 56.8% against the spread as we’ll detail below. Let’s get to the rest of Sunday’s recaps in the Big 4 team sports (I’ll leave the World Cup recaps to others), take a peek into Contest Corner with a Circa Survivor update as well as Top 5 consensus results in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, and then give our Best Bet for Monday Night Football as well as our early NFL Week 12 picks.
NFL: Chiefs beat Chargers 30-27 in Sunday Night Football shootout, but did NOT cover after closing as 5-point road favorites (went Over 53 on the Chiefs winning TD). Faves led 10-2 SU on Sunday but just 7-5 ATS. Road teams led 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS with Browns-Bills graded as a neutral site. Over/Unders split 6-6.
More NFL: Faves improved to 98-62-1 SU on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 88-67-6 ATS (56.8%). Home teams 85-72-1 SU with 5 neutral-site games, but road teams lead 78-74-6 ATS (51.3%). Unders lead 92-69-2 (57.1%) and primetime Unders dip to 19-13-1 (59.4%).
Even more NFL: Sunday’s early favorites went 7-1 SU but 5-3 ATS. The lone upset was by the Lions (+3 at Giants). The Panthers (+13 at Ravens) and Colts (+6.5 at Eagles) covered in SU losses. The Patriots (-3.5 vs. Jets) covered on a late punt return TD. Falcons covered in 27-24 win after closing -2 vs. Bears. Home teams went 4-3 SU and ATS as we’re grading Browns-Bills as a neutral-site game in Detroit. Over/Unders split 4-4.
Yet more NFL: faves went 2-1 SU and ATS in “afternoon” games with the upset by the Raiders (+2.5 in 22-16 OT win at Broncos). The Cowboys (-2.5) covered in a 40-3 rout at the Vikings and the Bengals (-3.5) covered in a 37-30 win at the Steelers. Road teams swept 3-0 SU and ATS while Unders led 2-1.
NBA: Faves went 7-1 SU on Sunday, but tied 4-4 ATS. The lone upset was by the Nuggets (+10.5 at Mavericks) while Pistons (+10.5 at Kings), Hornets (+5 at Wizards) and Rockets (+10.5 vs. Warriors) covered in SU losses. Home teams led 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. Unders 5-3.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 161-82 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 125-109-9 ATS (53.4%). Home teams lead 151-96 SU and 123-115-9 ATS (51.7%). Overs’ lead in total wagering dipped to 123-119-5 (50.8%).
CBB: In Sunday’s games between ranked teams, No. 2 Gonzaga beat No. 4 Kentucky 88-72 and covered as 4-point home favorite. At T-Mobile Arena here in Las Vegas, No. 5 Baylor beats No. 8 UCLA 80-75 as 2-point favorite and No. 16 Virginia upset No. 19 Illinois 70-61 as 2-point dog.
NHL: Faves/dogs split 1-1 with Blue Jackets (+215 vs. Panthers) pulling 5-3 outright upset and Penguins (-225 at Blackhawks) winning 5-3 as chalk. Home/road also split 1-1. Overs 2-0. On the season, faves 165-118 with 8 PKs. Home teams lead 154-133 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders’ lead down to 142-141-8.
Circa Survivor is down to 74 live entries after just 9 were eliminated Sunday on the Giants. Heading into Monday Night Football – when 15 need the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in Mexico – 59 have advanced to “Thanksgiving Week” (contestants must pick a winner from the 3 holiday games and then another winner on the rest of the Week 12 card).
Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-2-1 in NFL Week 11 (28-23-4, 54.9%, on the season). Wins were on the Cowboys -1.5 at Vikings and Chargers +5.5 at Chiefs. Losses were on the Giants -3 vs. Lions (No. 1 picks dipped to 7-4) and Vikings +1.5 vs. Cowboys (note: No. 5 pick Vikings played No. 2 Cowboys with both landing in Top 5; No. 6 pick on the Steelers +4 also lost). Push was on the Bears +3 in a 27-24 loss at the Falcons.
SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 11 (32-22-1, 59.3%, on the season). Wins were on the Cowboys -1.5 at Vikings, Colts +7 vs. Eagles and Chargers +5.5 at Chiefs. Losses were on the Giants -3 vs. Lions (No. 1 picks dipped to 6-5) and Rams +4.5 at Saints.
Monday’s Best Bets
Cardinals +8 vs. 49ers in Mexico: The advance line on this game over the summer was around 49ers -1.5 and was still under a touchdown last week. However, the San Fran bandwagon has been filling up since they acquired RB Christian McCaffrey even though they’ve been routed by the Chiefs 44-23 and beaten the Rams and Chargers (and didn’t cover as 8-point favorites) since then. So, this line is now up to 49ers -8 and I can’t resist taking the Cardinals. The Cardinals have also received a boost from an added offensive player as WR DeAndre Hopkins missed the first games of the season due to a PED suspension, but the Cardinals’ offense has opened up as their point totals in the last four games are 42, 26 , 21 and 27 for an average of 29 points per game. Anything around that should keep them within a TD of the 49ers, which still have a tendency to grind out wins, so even if the Cardinals don’t keep this close like I’m expecting, the back door should be open late. And I’ve been on this all week even though it looks like Colt McCoy will get the start again. As I also said with Peterson, McCoy doesn’t make the spectacular plays like Kyler Murray, but is a better game-manager and I have no problem trusting him to get us the money.
Early NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Thanksgiving: Lions +10 (DraftKings) or +9.5 vs. Bills
Bears +4 at Jets Raiders +4 at Seahawks