The Astros are just one win away from winning their second World Series in six seasons! They’ll turn to Framber Valdez tonight while the Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler as they try to extend the series to game seven. Game six gets underway tonight at 8:03 pm ET from Minute Maid Park, and I’ll be locking in these three-player props.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Framber Valdez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Like the regular season, Framber Valdez has been a quality starting machine. The southpaw has two straight quality starts this postseason with wins over the Yankees and Phillies, most recently. As for his playoff numbers, Valdez is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 19.0 innings of work. Houston has won all three games that he has started.
I will roll with the over on Valdez’s strikeouts tonight at 6.5 with a plus-money playout. He’s struck out nine batters in each of his last two starts and fanned six in his outing against the Mariners. And if you go back to his final regular-season start, Valdez recorded 10 punchouts against the Phillies in a 3-2 win. Overall, Philadelphia is just 9-58 (.155) against the lefty with 25 strikeouts, which equates to a 43.1% strikeout rate. The bottom line is that I expect Valdez to work at least into the 6th inning tonight before Dusty Baker goes to his dominant bullpen. He should have plenty of opportunities to record at least seven strikeouts.
Bet: Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120 via DraftKings)
Bryce Harper O/U 0.5 Hits
One player who has not fared well against Valdez is Bryce Harper. The slugger is 0-3 (.000) with a strikeout.
This is a bit of a gamble, considering how great Harper has been this postseason. He’s slashing .373/.439/.797 with six home runs and 13 RBI. However, I think it’s worth a shot with the plus-money payout. We saw how Justin Verlander basically pitched around Harper in Game 5, issuing him two walks. When JV attempted to challenge him, Harper smoked a double down the right-field line. I would expect a similar approach from Valdez tonight. Look for the lefty to stay around the edges and not be afraid to give him a free pass. After the first couple of at-bats, Dusty Baker will be able to pick his matchups with his bullpen, which should favor our bet. Let’s go with the under on 0.5 hits for Bryce Harper.
Bet: Bryce Harper Under 0.5 Hits (+160 via DraftKings)
Jose Altuve O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Zack Wheeler is putting together a pretty decent postseason, as he’s recorded four quality starts in five outings. The right-hander comes in with a 1-2 record, a 2.67 ERA, and a 0.73 WHIP over 30.1 innings pitched.
Wheeler opposed Valdez in game two, and the righty was tagged for all five runs (four earned) on six hits and three walks. In the game, Altuve finally broke out of his slump and went 3-4 with a double and two singles. Overall, the star second baseman is 2-3 (.667) against Wheeler with a double. Two total bases is a lofty number, but I think it’s worth a gamble with the +150 payout. Let’s take Altuve to record at least two total bases.
Bet: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150 via DraftKings)
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