The Hottest and Coldest Teams Entering the 2022 NCAA Tournament

We all want to know which teams have it, which teams are hot entering the NCAA Tournament, and that’s what I’ve set out to find.

Based on recent games, which teams in the field of 68 are playing their best?

But while we’re at it, who is playing poorly for a tournament team? Perhaps they shored up an at-large bid earlier in the season and made it despite some iffy play. Or maybe they stole an automatic bid. Which teams are these?

Let’s get objective about it.

I’m going to use my adjusted point differential metrics for teams, which adjusts point differentials for opponent strength faced.

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Here is how each of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams stack up over their final 10 games.

Gonzaga 1 W 9-1 82.1 64.3 17.8 25.7
Iowa 5 M 9-1 83.6 69.9 13.7 24.9
Houston 5 S 9-1 74.4 60.3 14.1 21.7
Kansas 1 M 8-2 76.1 67.8 8.3 21.6
Texas
Tech
3 W 7-3 67.5 59.8 7.7 20.2
UCLA 4 E 8-2 74.0 62.6 11.4 19.7
Tennessee 3 S 9-1 70.3 62.1 8.2 18.9
Arizona 1 S 9-1 83.8 73.5 10.3 18.0
Arkansas 4 W 7-3 73.2 69.9 3.3 17.9
Baylor 1 E 7-3 71.5 68.6 2.9 17.6
Kentucky 2 E 7-3 75.4 70.6 4.8 17.3
Memphis 9 W 8-2 72.2 65.5 6.7 16.2
San
Francisco
10 E 6-4 78.6 69.4 9.2 15.7
Duke 2 W 8-2 80.0 72.5 7.5 15.6
Auburn 2 M 6-4 74.5 69.0 5.5 15.4
Virginia
Tech
11 E 8-2 70.3 63.3 7.0 15.3
Michigan 11 S 5-5 74.4 73.2 1.2 14.7
Loyola
Chicago
10 S 7-3 72.6 61.2 11.4 14.7
Villanova 2 S 9-1 71.7 66.3 5.4 14.6
Notre
Dame
11 W 7-3 77.8 68.9 8.9 14.6
St
Mary’s
(CA)
5 E 7-3 69.6 65.3 4.3 14.3
North
Carolina
8 E 8-2 76.3 69.6 6.7 14.3
San
Diego
St.
8 M 9-2 66.5 58.1 8.4 14.1
Texas 6 E 5-5 68.1 68.6 -0.5 14.0
Davidson 10 W 7-3 72.5 61.9 10.6 13.8
Louisiana
St.
6 M 6-4 74.4 70.2 4.2 13.4
Rutgers 11 W 6-4 68.7 67.7 1.0 13.4
Connecticut 5 W 7-3 68.9 65.3 3.6 13.2
Boise
St.
8 W 8-2 70.4 64.6 5.8 13.2
Illinois 4 S 6-4 72.6 71.4 1.2 13.1
Texas
Christian
9 S 4-6 65.8 67.5 -1.7 13.0
Vermont 13 W 9-1 76.4 55.7 20.7 12.9
Creighton 9 M 7-3 70.5 67.0 3.5 12.9
Alabama 6 W 5-5 76.9 77.3 -0.4 12.5
Providence 4 M 7-3 75.6 73.1 2.5 12.2
Colorado
St.
6 S 8-2 66.7 62.8 3.9 12.1
Ohio
St.
7 S 5-5 71.3 69.7 1.6 11.9
Miami
FL
10 M 7-3 75.4 70.5 4.9 11.7
Wisconsin 3 M 7-3 67.7 65.4 2.3 11.2
Murray
St.
7 E 10-0 73.2 59.5 13.7 10.3
Seton
Hall
8 S 7-3 66.6 64.7 1.9 10.0
Purdue 3 E 6-4 68.5 69.0 -0.5 10.0
Indiana 12 E 4-6 70.3 72.0 -1.7 9.6
South
Dakota
State
13 M 10-0 84.5 69.7 14.8 9.1
Marquette 9 E 4-6 74.8 75.0 -0.2 8.9
UAB 12 S 8-2 79.0 70.8 8.2 8.7
Southern
California
7 M 7-4 69.8 71.5 -1.6 8.0
New
Mexico
St.
12 W 7-3 70.3 62.8 7.5 8.0
Richmond 12 M 7-3 67.5 65.3 2.2 7.9
Michigan
St.
7 W 4-6 69.1 73.6 -4.5 7.8
Georgia
St.
16 W 10-0 68.8 60.0 8.8 7.2
St
Peter’s
15 E 8-2 66.5 57.5 9.0 6.9
Chattanooga 13 S 8-2 71.5 64.9 6.6 6.4
Wyoming 12 E 5-5 65.5 64.1 1.4 6.3
Colgate 14 M 10-0 77.1 63.6 13.5 5.4
Akron 13 E 8-2 71.1 62.7 8.4 5.1
Cal
St.
Fullerton
15 W 8-2 68.5 62.8 5.7 4.0
Iowa
St.
11 M 4-6 60.5 67.6 -7.1 3.8
Yale 14 E 8-2 69.8 64.8 5.0 2.4
Delaware 15 S 6-4 70.0 67.5 2.5 1.8
Montana
St.
14 W 8-2 77.8 70.9 6.9 1.7
Norfolk
St.
16 E 9-1 74.1 62.5 11.6 1.0
Longwood 14 S 9-1 73.9 66.5 7.4 1.0
Wright
St.
16 S 7-3 74.4 68.4 6.0 1.0
Bryant 16 S 9-1 80.6 71.0 9.6 0.5
Jacksonville
St.
15 M 6-4 69.8 65.6 4.2 -0.8
Texas
Southern
16 M 8-2 72.0 64.6 7.4 -1.4
Texas
A&M
Corpus
Christi
16 M 7-3 74.8 70.8 4.0 -4.0
NCAA
Tournament
Averages
493-189
72.6
66.8
5.9
11.1

Notables

Best Teams

It’s no wonder that the leaders in adjusted point differential are just the best overall squads. That includes the four 1 seeds — the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Kansas JayhawksArizona Wildcatsand Baylor Bears — all inside the top 10 here.

Others in the top 10:
– Iowa Hawkeyes
– Houston Cougars
– Texas Tech Red Raiders
– UCLA Bruins
– Tennessee Volunteers
– Arkansas Razorbacks

Trending Teams

Which teams are better over their past 10 than they were before the close of the season?

These ones (among those with at least a 12 seed):
– Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8.44)
– Iowa Hawkeyes (7.98)
– Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6.63)
– Creighton Bluejays (4.70)
– Davidson Wildcats (4.61)
– Memphis Tigers (4.14)
– Arkansas Razorbacks (3.27)
– Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3.12)
– Michigan Wolverines (3.05)
-Virginia Tech Hokies (2.76)

Undefeated Teams

Which teams are 10-0 in their past 10?

These ones:
– Murray State Racers
– South Dakota State Jackrabbits
– Colgate Raiders
– Georgia State Panthers

These teams have a 9-1 record in their past 10:
– Iowa Hawkeyes
– Arizona Wildcats
– Bryant Bulldogs
– San Diego State Aztecs
– Norfolk State Spartans
– Vermont Catamounts
– Tennessee Volunteers
– Gonzaga Bulldogs
– Villanova Wildcats
– Houston Cougars
– Longwood Lancers

Weakest Single-Digit Seeds

Which single-digit seeds have the lowest adjusted point differential in their past 10?

These ones:
– Michigan State Spartans (7.83)
– Southern California Trojans (8.02)
– Marquette Golden Eagles (8.87)
– Purdue Boilermakers (10.00)
– Seton Hall Pirates (10.04)
– Murray State Racers (10.29)
– Wisconsin Badgers (11.22)
– Miami (FL) Hurricanes (11.73)
– Ohio State Buckeyes (11.90)
– Colorado State Rams (12.08)

Reeling Teams

Which squads have the biggest negative differential between their past 10 differential and their early-season adjusted mark? This isn’t to say these teams are bad — just that they are not playing as strongly as they did during the early part of the season.

These ones:
– Purdue Boilermakers (-12.22)
– Arizona Wildcats (-7.29)
– Auburn Tigers (-6.24)
– Michigan State Spartans (-5.93)
– Kentucky Wildcats (-5.53)
– Southern California Trojans (-5.19)
– Illinois Fighting Illini (-4.90)
– Baylor Bears (-4.61)
– LSU Tigers (-4.54)
– Connecticut Huskies (-4.38)

Losing/Non-Winning Teams

These teams are just 5-5 entering the Big Dance:
– Michigan Wolverines
– Alabama Crimson Tide
– Texas Longhorns
– Ohio State Buckeyes
– Wyoming Cowboys

These teams are 4-6 entering the tournament:
– Iowa State Cyclones
– Texas Christian Horned Frogs
– Marquette Golden Eagles
– Indiana Hoosiers
– Michigan State Spartans

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