TCU vs. Baylor Odds, Picks

TCU vs. Baylor Odds

Wednesday’s matchup between No. 17 TCU and No. 19 Baylor is what Big 12 basketball is all about.

Both teams come into this matchup with only four combined losses.

The Horned Frogs’ success on the football field has overshadowed what head coach Jamie Dixon has put together on the basketball side. TCU currently holds the fifth-longest active winning streak in the country at 10 games.

Scott Drew and Baylor will not shy away from an opportunity to snap this streak on their home floor. The Bears have been battle-tested to begin their season, playing six teams inside the top 70. Baylor found some success against this premier competition, going 3-3 in those matchups.

This will be a great bounce-back opportunity for a Baylor team that will be at full strength after suffering a road loss to Iowa State on New Year’s Eve.

This has all the makings to be one of the best Big 12 games of the regular season.

Dixon is looking to avenge TCU’s poor 2022 conference performance, by returning almost every piece from a team that finished the year 21-13 but 8-10 in conference.

The Horned Frogs have the fourth-highest minutes continuity (75.6%) from a season ago and has used this experience to rattle off 10 straight wins after a slow start.

The Horned Frogs have done this behind great defensive play and an offense that creates a plethora of high-percentage shots.

Offensively, TCU rarely settles for the quick outside shot. It scores 58.1% of its points from 2-point range, which is the 31st-highest percentage in the country.

These high-percentage shots are a result of 59.8% of his baskets coming off of assists (29th nationally). Many of those assists are due to the incredible play of point guard Mike Miles.

Miles has been effective on both ends of the floor, leading the team in both points and steals in nonconference play.

Awesome game from Mike Miles today in a big win over Texas Tech to start Big 12 play:

23 points on 7-12 shooting, 3 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. Stock continues to rise as the youngest junior in the class

— Mavs/Magic Draft (@MavsDraft) December 31, 2022

Miles’ play on both ends will be crucial against a Baylor team that is used to having an advantage at the point guard position through senior Adam Flagler.

TCU’s offense, led by the explosive Miles, will also be able to add points through its success on the glass. The Frogs create second-chance opportunities on 37.3% of their offensive possessions, an area that Baylor’s defense has struggled with. The Bears are allowing their opponents to grab offensive boards at a 29.4% rate, which ranks 209th nationally.

Lastly, if TCU can find some outside shooting progression against a Baylor team that is allowing teams to shoot 34.3% from outside (215th nationally), there’s no reason it can’t score in bunches.

You have to believe that Drew will have this Baylor team laser-focused after a disappointing result on the road against Iowa State.

In addition, the Bears will finally be back at full strength after shooting guard LJ Cryer missed the last two games with a concussion.

Scott Drew says LJ Cryer is out of concussion protocol and is back at practice.

— John Werner (@JohnWernerTrib) January 3, 2023

Cryer’s return is crucial to a potent Baylor offense, as he is responsible for 28.1% of the Bears’ total shots.

Cryer’s 37.1% 3-point percentage will also be welcomed back for a team that lets it fly from deep. So far this season, Baylor ranks 60th nationally in points scored from the 3-point line at over 35% per game.

Additionally, just as TCU will supplement its offense with its play on the glass, so will Baylor. The Bears create second-chance opportunities on 37% of their possessions, the 11th-highest rate in the country.

Defensively, TCU has allowed opponents to get a second look on just under 30% of their possessions, 211th nationally. Look for both of these teams to get plenty of shots up, creating plenty of second-chance opportunities.

TCU vs. Baylor Betting Pick

This matchup has all of the pieces to be one of the most entertaining Big 12 games of the season.

Behind the exceptional play of two high-level point guards, both of these offenses will be run at a high tempo. TCU and Baylor rank inside the top 65 in average offensive possession length, using no more than 16.5 seconds on average.

This is a matchup in which I see TCU having a ton of success against a Baylor defense that has struggled on the glass all season. That being said, I also think Drew will have his fully-healthy offense firing on all cylinders coming off a loss.

With all of this considered, I believe the smartest investment for a game that features two of the best offenses in the Big 12 is on the over.

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