Our own Scott Bogman and Pat Fitzmaurice recently reviewed a dozen polarizing dynasty fantasy football players on the FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast. These are players that have a high standard deviation in our Expert Consensus Rankings. Some managers cannot get enough of these players while others want nothing to do with them relative to their current average draft position (ADP) and dynasty trade value. Let’s take a look at one polarizing player on their list, Tua Tagovailoa.
Fantasy Football Debate: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings / draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021.
Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game – good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season.
So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18, and QB16.
– Andrew Erickson
2022 Consensus Dynasty Rankings
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