Ole Miss vs. Alabama Odds
Ole Miss will hit the road for its first away SEC matchup of the season as it takes on the seventh-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide Tuesday night.
Ole Miss lost its last game against Tennessee, however, the Rebels were able to keep it close and cover the spread, losing by four as a 7.5-point underdog.
Alabama will be back in the Coleman Coliseum as it looks for its third win in a row against teams from Mississippi. The Tide beat Jackson State at home by 20 before going to Starkville and handling the Bulldogs, winning by 11 as a 1.5-point favorite.
The Crimson Tide have dominated Ole Miss historically, holding a 125-58 lead in the all-time series. Alabama has been even better at home against the Rebels, boasting a 74-11 record over Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.
Ole Miss was able to limit the Volunteers’ scoring, holding them to just 63 points in the game. Can the Rebels’ defense do that again against the eighth-highest scoring team in the country in Alabama?
Kermit Davis has yet to beat Alabama since taking over in Oxford before the 2018-19 season. In five attempts, the Rebels have lost four by double digits, and in every matchup, the Tide have covered the spread with ease.
Ole Miss is best on the defensive end, as it is 46th in the nation in points allowed per game (63.5). The Rebels’ slow pace only adds to that strong defensive effort, as they’re 255th in Adjusted Tempo.
The Rebels’ defense ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to defending shots at the rim, holding teams to 54.4%. And they’ve been better when it comes to defending the paint, ranking in the 99th percentile by limiting teams to 27.3%.
However, Alabama as a team relies heavily on the 3-pointer, ranking 56th in all of college basketball when it comes to point distribution from beyond the arc.
The Crimson Tide rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to 3-point attempts per game, and they’re above the 90th percentile when it comes to both above the break and corner 3-point field goal percentage.
Ole Miss has allowed teams to hit 33.2% from beyond the perimeter, but has been better as of late, holding opposing teams to 31.5% in its last five. The Rebels could be in trouble when it comes to corner 3s, though. They have allowed teams to hit 40.8% from the corner so far this season.
On the offensive side of the ball, Ole Miss has struggled from really everywhere on the floor. The Rebels posted an effective field goal percentage of just 49.2%.
Against the Crimson Tide specifically, Ole Miss will be in for a real challenge. Ole Miss sees almost all of its scoring come from field goal attempts at the rim. Alabama ranks in the 93rd percentile, holding teams to just 54.4% on shots at the rim.
Alabama has been a better team than Ole Miss on both offense and defense. And while the Rebels were able to keep it close against Tennessee, I don’t think they’ll be able to do the same against the Tide for a few reasons.
First and foremost, the Tide will look to push the pace much more than the Volunteers did — Tennessee is 200th in the nation in Adjusted Tempo while Alabama is third overall.
Alabama has also been elite when it comes to offensive rebounding, ranking 16th in the nation. The Tide are coming down with an offensive rebound on 36.3% of opportunities.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has allowed teams to get the ball off the glass 30.7% of the time and averages 8.6 offensive rebounds per contest. Against Tennessee, the Rebels allowed 16 second-chance points. Alabama averages 13.6 a game and will likely see even more against the Rebels.
The Crimson Tide have had issues when it comes to turning the ball over, averaging 17.1 per game. But I don’t think they’ll face the kind of pressure defensively in Tuscaloosa that Ole Miss has been able to produce at home.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Betting Pick
The Rebels have played just one true road game this season – at Memphis, where they lost by 11. Now faced with hitting the road again against an even tougher opponent, I think we’ll see a similar result.
Alabama has dominated the Rebels since Davis arrived in Oxford, and now with Nate Oats having one of his best teams since he got to Tuscaloosa, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Back the Tide as high as a 14-point favorite over the Rebels.
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