NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday, June 5th

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 112-110, + -6.65 units, -2.9 percent ROI

Market Report Recap for Friday, June 4th

There were no recommended bets on Saturday. Player prop bets went 0-2 but probably should’ve split and broke even. Nazem Kadri (over 3.5 shots) only played 37 seconds before being injured and Zach Hyman (over 3.5 shots) had three shots in the first 24 minutes of the game but didn’t register another shot the rest of the way. It doesn’t get much worse than that.

Market Report for Saturday, June 5th

Let’s look at Game 3 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (+150) and Tampa Bay Lightning (-170)

Brayden Point led the Lightning in scoring in both of their runs to the Stanley Cup (28 goals in 46 games) and they could really use his offense right about now, but he won’t play in Game 3. The Lightning are going to have to find a way to score goals, because even if Andrei Vasilevskiy is great, playing a defensive style probably isn’t going to work against the Rangers. Igor Shesterkin has allowed two or fewer goals in eight of his last nine games, and as a result, the Rangers are playing with a lot of confidence. A run to the Stanley Cup was always in the cards for New York if Shesterkin was great, but the Rangers didn’t play this well in the regular season. Regardless, they picked a great time to start playing their best hockey, and after two games, it really does feel like the series is over. Hockey is a wild sport, though, and the Lightning shouldn’t be counted out. My model estimates that the Lightning will win about as often as the market does. So, while I do think Tampa Bay will win the game more often than New York, laying the favorite wouldn’t be a value bet. Since they’re back on home ice, the expectation is that the Lightning will be better in Game 3, but that’s sort of dependent on players like Victor Hedman being at their best. We could see some line juggling, too. Jon Cooper is a smart coach, and I’m guessing he will direct his team to have faith in Vasilevskiy and worry about generating offense. I estimate that Igor Shesterkin could see close to 40 shots from the Lightning tonight, as the Rangers are allowing 36 shots per 60 minutes in the playoffs. The prop has moved from 28.5 to 30.5 since Game 1, but given the circumstances, betting Shesterkin to register at least 31 saves in Game 3 at -105 is a value bet.

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