For an in depth breakdown of Monday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 pm ET. I’ll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 pm ET.
Until then, let’s discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today…
7:05 pm ET: Toronto Blue Jays (60-48) at Baltimore Orioles (56-52)
These AL East foes are both vying for the postseason and only separated by four games in the division standings. The Blue Jays just split a four-game set on the road against the Twins. Meanwhile, the Orioles just took two of three at home against the Pirates. In tonight’s series opener, Toronto turns to lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 4.86 ERA) and Baltimore sends out righty Jordan Lyles (8-8, 4.40 ERA). This line opened with the Jays listed as a -145 road favorite and the Orioles a +130 domestic dogs. Sharps have laid the chalk with Toronto, steaming the Jays up from -145 to -155. Road favorites are 359-238 (60%) this season. The Jays hold a significant edge at the plate, hitting .264 compared to .236 for the Orioles. We could be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise to 9.5. The over is 4-0 in four head-to-head matchups this season. The forecast calls for high 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center at Camden Yards.
7:10 pm ET: Cincinnati Reds (44-63) at New York Mets (70-39)
These non-division opponents are at opposite ends of the NL standings. The Reds just took two of three from the Brewers on the road, but still sit 15-games back of a Wild Card spot. On the flip side, the Mets are tied for the 2nd-best record in MLB and just took four of five from the Braves at home. In tonight’s series opener, Cincinnati starts righty Justin Dunn (no record) and New York rebuttals with righty Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.61 ERA). Dunn is making his season debut after missing much of last year and this year with a shoulder injury. This line opened with the Mets listed as a big -265 home favorite and the Reds a +240 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Mets up from -265 to -295. Home favorites -200 or more are 174-73 (70%) this season. New York is 55-24 as a favorite, 35-18 at home and 47-24 against righties. Cincinnati is 33-49 as a dog, 20-31 on the road and 30-43 against righties. The Mets are hitting .259 compared to .239 for the Reds. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling over liability and a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for high 80s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citi Field.
9:40 pm ET: San Francisco Giants (53-55) at San Diego Padres (61-50)
These NL West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Giants just swept a brief two-game series on the road at Oakland. Meanwhile, the Padres just got swept in a three-game series on the road at the Dodgers. In tonight’s series opener, San Francisco taps lefty Alex Wood (7-9, 4.42 ERA) and San Diego counters with fellow southpaw Blake Snell (4-5, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -160 home favorite and the Giants a +145 road dog. Sharps are confident in the Padres getting back on track, steaming San Diego up from -160 to -175. Monday home favorites off a loss are 33-11 (75%) this season. The Padres also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). San Diego is 41-32 as a favorite, 31-23 at home and 22-16 against lefties. The Padres lead the season series 6-4. San Diego is 4-1 in Snell’s last five starts.