MLB Odds: Pirates-Orioles prediction, odds and pick

The Pittsburgh Pirates will continue their three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday evening at Camden Yards. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Pirates-Orioles prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Pittsburgh is fresh off a shutout at the hands of Baltimore last night, and in a 3-7 stretch. At 43-63, Pittsburgh is in third place in the NL Central, fighting with the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds to stay out of last place.

Baltimore, even after selling at the trade deadline, continues to shock the baseball world. With a 55-51 record, including four wins in a row, Baltimore is in fourth place in the AL East, but only a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot.

Here are the Pirates-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

MLB Odds: Pirates-Orioles Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-154)

Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+128)

Over: 8.5 (-114)

Under: 8.5 (-106)

Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread

JT Brubaker will take the ball tonight in Baltimore, and that is good news for Pirates’ fans. Brubaker has a 4.40 ERA in his 20 starts, striking out 105 batters in his 104.1 innings. Brubaker’s curveball is his strength, ranking in the 88th percentile in spin rate, and batters have hit just .193 against the offering. On the road, Brubaker has been successful, with a 3.71 ERA in games away from PNC Park. Bad news is, the Pittsburgh bullpen has been pretty bad, ranking 27th in the league with a 4.42 ERA. Closer David Bednar has been hurt, but Will Crowe (3.09 ERA) has taken over the duties, and is a strong option. Reliever Chase De Jong has put together a career year, with a sparkling 1.95 ERA in 37 innings of work.

Offense has been an issue with Pittsburgh, as evidenced by their -151 run differential. Thankfully, Bryan Reynolds navigated the numerous trade rumors and is still a Pirate. Reynolds has launched 16 home runs with a .258 batting average. Eleven of Reynold’s 16 home runs have come on the road. The exciting six-foot-seven Oneil Cruz is patrolling shortstop, and has hit eight home runs in his 38 games this season. The team’s 106 home runs rank 17th in the league.

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

Baltimore has been the darlings of the first half, and that magic has yet to run out just yet. Austin Voth will be tonight’s starting pitcher, bringing with him a 5.54 ERA in 30 games (7 starts). Since Baltimore claimed him off waivers, Voth has been lights out, with a 2.84 ERA in 11 appearances (7 starts). In those seven starts, Voth has pitched to a 2.77 ERA. Voth’s walk rate has gone down from 11.3% in 2021 to 7% in 2022. Behind Voth is one of baseball’s most underrated bullpens. Baltimore’s bullpen ERA ranks 12th with a 3.84 mark. Even after trading breakout closer Jorge Lopez, this bullpen is full of weapons. Goliath closer Felix Bautista has a 1.77 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. Bautista’s fastball averages 98.8 mph, but it’s the splitter that is his best pitch. Batters have hit just .088 against the trap-door splitter. Lefty Cionel Perez has enjoyed a career year as well, with a 1.15 ERA in 39 innings.

The Baltimore lineup may seem naked without Trey Mancini in it, as he now plays for Houston. Still, there are some power threats, namely Anthony Santander. Santander leads the team with 19 home runs, to go with his .259 batting average. Santander’s strikeout rate has been cut nearly five percent, leading to a career-year pace. Cedric Mullins, last year’s breakout hitter, has not quite matched the home run totals, but has 25 doubles and 24 stolen bases on the year. Jorge Mateo, in his first extended appearance, has 10 home runs and a team-leading 26 stolen bases. Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Adley Rutschman all added over 20 doubles as well.

Final Pirates-Orioles Prediction & Pick

This might be a pretty good matchup, but hard to pick against that Baltimore bullpen.

Final Pirates-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+128), under 8.5 (-106)

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