MLB Odds: Mets-Astros prediction, odds and pick

The New York Mets will take on the Houston Astros in a battle of two of the best teams in the MLB. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Astros prediction and pick.

Both of these teams have had incredible success this season. The Mets are 45-24, a record that has them 5.5 games ahead of their closest competitor in the NL East. Their pitching has been unbelievable, and the lineup has contributed well throughout the year too. Houston is only 41-25, but they have a full ten-game lead in the AL West. This game will be a good test for both squads as they face an opponent who will almost surely be in the postseason.

Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Mets-Astros MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Mets-Astros Odds

New York Mets: +1.5 (-188)

Houston Astros: -1.5 (+155)

Over: 9 (+100)

Under: 9 (-122)

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Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread

New York will count on Trevor Williams in this game. Williams has been surprisingly solid, earning himself a 3.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP on the year. Even more impressive are his last seven appearances for the Mets. Over those seven outings, Williams owns an ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.09. Those elite numbers came against solid offensive teams too, as the Mets faced the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants, and the Milwaukee Brewers in those seven games. Another quality outing from Williams is far from out of the question here.

The Mets are lucky to be facing Houston pitcher Jose Urquidy in this matchup. Most of the Astros pitching staff has been fantastic, but Urquidy has been the opposite. He owns a 4.99 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP on the season, making him one of the worst pitchers on the Astros. While only three of the Mets hitters have ever faced Urquidy, all three of them own a career batting average of .300 or higher against him. This is an easy matchup for an offense as good as New York’s and that should show here.

Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread

While Williams has pitched well this year, the Astros have a couple of advantages over him in this game. There are three hitters in the Houston lineup who hit Williams well, and the entire Houston lineup is historically much stronger against right-handed pitching as opposed to lefties. The Astros earn a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage against righties, making this a somewhat comfortable matchup for them.

Houston will benefit hugely from playing on their home field in this one. Urquidy has been absolutely awful on the road, but his numbers at home have actually been really solid. He owns a 2.78 ERA in Minute Maid Park compared to a 6.28 ERA anywhere else. The Astros also earn better batting statistics across the board when they play at home, as they see an improvement in almost every single major major offensive category when they play in front of their fans.

Final Mets-Astros Prediction & Pick

Neither side of the spread looks great here. There’s an argument for the Mets’ moneyline, but even that doesn’t look too appealing in this matchup. Instead, the under is the best pick on the board. Urquidy has been good at home, and Williams has been lights-out lately. Lock in the under here.

Final Mets-Astros Prediction & Pick: Under 9 (-122)

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