Via Rocky Widner/Getty Images. Pictured: Harrison Barnes #40 of the Sacramento Kings looks on during the game against the Utah Jazz on December 30, 2022 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
- PropBetGuy is back with a point-total bet for Tuesday’s NBA slate.
- He’s fading Harrison Barnes against a Jazz team that minimizes opponent spot-up attempts on the perimeter.
- Check out his pick and analysis below.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Harrison Barnes, Under 14.5 Points
|odds||Under 14.5 Points (-120)|
|Books Available||DraftKings, FanDuel|
We’ve got a mini three-game slate tonight in the Association, but that won’t stop me from finding some value on the player props board.
I’m focusing on Harrison Barnes’s point total. While the matchup against Utah might signify offense, I’ll spell out why I’m on the forward’s under.
Barnes is averaging 13.6 points per game on the season, including 13.1 per game on the road. Overall, he’s failed to clear this line in seven of his last 10 games.
In the Kings offense, Barnes is a secondary scorer, typically working off De’Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis. In fact, Barnes leads the Kings with 4.8 points per game off spot-up shots.
The Jazz are one of the better teams against spot-up shooters, allowing the second-fewest points per game at the lowest frequency, among NBA teams. When Barnes has faced the 10 teams allowing the fewest spot-up points, he’s gone under this line in seven of 10 matchups. This includes his 10-point outing against Utah last week.
The Jazz lack defensively on the pick and roll and on the interior, which should lead to big games from Fox and Sabonis.
I’m counting on another low-usage game from the longest-tenured King as I have Barnes slated for 12 points tonight.
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