Betting Matchup Preview
- Who: Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday, Dec. 11 (Week 14)
- Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington Texas
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Cowboys -17.5 (-110), Texans +17.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -2000, Texans +1040
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-104/-118)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Dallas Cowboys won their third straight game last weekend in remarkable fashion. They put up a franchise-best 33 points in the fourth quarter to turn a close game against the Indianapolis Colts into total destruction.
The other team from Texas is on a much different trajectory. The Houston Texans lost their seventh straight game, this time against their former quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Texans vs. Cowboys
These two teams from Texas are heading in different directions. The Houston Texans are in a massive rebuild, with the worst record in the NFL at 1-10-1. They are poised to get the top pick in next year’s draft, which they most likely will take their future quarterback.
For most of the season, the Texans had Davis Mills as their quarterback, but Houston went with Kyle Allen in Week 13 against the Cleveland Browns. Allen turned the ball over three times, and head coach Lovie Smith already announced that the Texans are going back to Mills this weekend against Dallas. Mills does not have a lot of weapons, but the one emerging player on offense they have is Demon Pierce. Pierce was solid against a stingy Browns rush defense, rushing for 73 yards on 18 attempts.
The Texans are now heading into a buzzsaw that is the Dallas Cowboys as the biggest underdogs of the season at +17.5, according to FanDuel.
The Dallas Cowboys look like they are one of the most complete teams in the NFL. They are coming off a Sunday night game where Dallas forced five turnovers and put up 54 points. It was the third time this season that the Cowboys put up more than 40 points, the most of any team. The Cowboys are hitting their stride, and they might have the best 1-2 running back tandem in the league with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
Pollard and Elliott got into the end zone and combined for three touchdowns and 168 yards on the ground. Their passing game is no slouch either, as both CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup scored. Lamb is emerging as a true number-one receiver in the second half of this season. It was the fifth time in six games that Lamb had five receptions and at least 70 yards receiving.
Defensively this Cowboys team comes at you in waves. Micah Parsons did not record a sack on Sunday, yet the defense got to Matt Ryan three times. Dallas also forced Ryan and the Colts’ offense to throw three interceptions and two forced fumbles, one of which was returned for a touchdown. People will say that the Cowboys cannot be trusted because they are a team that crumbles in big moments. However, this is the most complete team the Cowboys have had in quite some time, and the rest of the NFL has been put on notice.
When it comes to the spread, there is no real shock that it is as big as it is. The Cowboys are coming off a monster performance, and the Texans are the worst team in the NFL. Despite being from the same state, these two teams only meet once every four years. The last time these two played, the Texans came away with the overtime win with Deshaun Watson as their quarterback. A lot has changed in four years, and you should be OK with the big spread. The Cowboys will win by more than 20 points to cover the spread.
The total in this game is 45.5, and with the number of points that the Cowboys can score on both sides of the ball, one can argue that they can hit the over themselves. It will be a shock if the Texans get more than 14 points.
That being said, this game has blowout written all over it. We would not be surprised if some garbage time touchdowns put this game over the total.
Player Prop Bets: Texans vs. Cowboys
The best player prop for this game is Tony Pollard anytime touchdown (-115).
Last weekend Tony Pollard made his first start with Ezekiel Elliott active. Pollard was sensational, running for 91 yards and two touchdowns. There is no question at this point in their careers that Pollard is the more dynamic playmaker over Elliott. Elliott will likely retain his starter role, but Pollard is getting more of the touches because of his homerun ability.
The Texans are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 169.1 per game. Expect Pollard to exploit the Texans’ defense and have a big day on the ground which should include getting into the endzone at least once.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are wagers that incorporate multiple legs within the same sporting event.
There are some intriguing options to put in a same-game parlay for the Texans vs. Cowboys on Sunday, but here is a look at our four most valuable selections:
- Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown (-115)
- Tony Pollard Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114)
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (+100)
- Dallas Defense Anytime Touchdown (+340)
This parlay gives us +2299 odds, which means a $100 bet would return $2298 in profits.
The Dallas Cowboys are the only team in the NFL this season to put up 40 points or more in three games. Last weekend they put up a franchise-record 33 points in the fourth quarter alone. This is a Cowboys team that is hitting on all cylinders.
We mentioned that Pollard will get into the end zone, but we are also taking his rushing total. Pollard has been a model of consistency all year for the Cowboys. He has had 80 or more yards in five of his last six games.
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is running the offense by having Ezekiel Elliott grind out the opposing defense and then utilizing Pollard as the home run option. Pollard should see a lot of touches against the worst rush defense in the league. Expect a big game from Pollard, who has played behind an excellent and underrated offensive line all year, and expect him to hit his rushing total.
Over the last month or so, CeeDee Lamb has taken that next step in his game. Many people expected Lamb to have a big season before this year with the departure of Amari Cooper. Still, Lamb and the offense were inconsistent mostly because Cooper Rush was the quarterback with Dak Prescott out. With Prescott back in, the offense is clicking.
Since his return, they rank first in points per game and touchdown drive percentage. Lamb has scored four touchdowns in his last five games and is getting the lion’s share of targets. Lamb has had five or more receptions in five straight games, and we expect one of those receptions to get into the end zone.
The last leg of the SGP is a bold one from a betting standpoint, but when you think about it, it’s not that crazy. The Dallas defense forced five turnovers last week against Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts. They also returned a fumble for a touchdown.
The Texans gave up two defensive touchdowns to the Browns last weekend with Kyle Allen as the quarterback. They decided to go back to Davis Mills for this matchup, and he has as many touchdown passes (11) as he does interceptions. It would be shocking if Mills threw a pick-six in this game.