The Cleveland Guardians take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Mariners prediction and pick.
Aaron Civale gets the call for the Guardians, while Robbie Ray goes to the mound for the Mariners.
Aaron Civale has a 5.37 ERA, but before you write him off as a non-competitive pitcher, do realize that his ERA was slightly higher than seven runs on July 2. He got injured on July 13 in an abbreviated appearance against the Chicago White Sox . He missed the next four weeks and came back to the Cleveland rotation on Aug. 10. He has since pitched to a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. That’s very solid.
Robbie Ray has a 3.75 ERA, which is much higher than what the Mariners were bargaining for this year. However, after a horrible start to the season in April and May, he has become — in June, part of July, and most of August — the pitcher Seattle needed him to be.
Ray’s ERA was 4.93 on June 2. Since then, only one team — the Houston Astros — has bothered him. Every non-Houston start since June 2 has been good if not great for last year’s Cy Young Award winner. The numbers against the Astros in three separate starts over the past three months are bad, but against everyone else, Ray has thrived this summer. What bothered Ray early in the season and in his starts against the Astros was an inability to wiggle out of jams and prevent the big inning from unfolding. Ray has been able to get on top of hitters and snuff out big innings before they develop against the rest of the American League over the past three months. If he did not deserve trust in June when you were betting on one of his starts for Seattle, that trust has been earned back now, or at least, it should be.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Guardians-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Mariners Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers: +1.5 (-170)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7.5 (+104)
Under: 7.5 (-128)
Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
Cleveland is flying high and coming to the ballpark in a great mood after scoring a come-from-behind win on Saturday night. The Guardians got three runs in the eighth to stun the Mariners and ruin a typically strong performance from their ace, Luis Castillo. After grabbing a win like that, Cleveland players are going to be in a great frame of mind. They could definitely spoil the afternoon for Robbie Ray with tough at-bats and a generally inspired performance.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
After losing to the Guardians on Saturday, the Mariners are going to be motivated to fight back in this game. This series between two playoff contenders has featured October-level pitching. The Mariners have not scored more than three runs in any of the three games in this series. Cleveland’s four runs on Saturday are the highest single-game run total of any team in this series. Tough, low-scoring games make this series feel like a playoff encounter, and it very well could be if the Guardians win the American League Central while the Mariners notch the No. 6 seed among American League wild card teams. (They also play a series in Cleveland in September.)
The Mariners, handcuffed by Cleveland pitching, now get to face Aaron Civale, the weak link in the Guardians’ rotation. This is a prime opportunity for Seattle to score six or seven runs and pull away, making the day easier for Robbie Ray.
Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick
If Seattle had won on Saturday, the Mariners would have been gunning for a four-game sweep. That would have made it harder to pick them, since four-game sweeps of decent opponents are unlikely in baseball. However, since Cleveland came back and won on Saturday, the Civale-Ray matchup sets up perfectly for the Mariners.
Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5