A Look at the 5 Conference Championship Games

It’s Selection Sunday.

But as always, some final tests are in order before the field is finalized.

We have the Ivy League, SEC, Atlantic 10, American Athletic Conference, and Big Ten championships scheduled for today.

Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make today based on the available value at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.

Yale Bulldogs vs. Princeton Tigers

The top recommendation in this game is the Princeton Tigers moneyline (-152). It is a two-unit suggestion.

Our model is rating the Tigers as 68.1% likely to win, besting their implied moneyline odds (60.6%). There is also a one-star lean on Princeton to cover (-3.0).

In their regular-season meetings, the road team has won each game. On January 29th, the Yale Bulldogs won 80-74. On February 19th, Princeton won 81-75.

That led to an average point total of 155.0. Despite that, there is a one-star lean on the under (142.5).

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Tennessee Volunteers

The SEC Championship pits the Texas A&M Aggies (52nd in our nERD-based power ratings) against the Tennessee Volunteers (9th in nERD) after the Aggies upset the Arkansas Razorbacks 82-64 on Saturday.

It’s no real surprise that the Volunteers are favored by 7.0, however. Their nERD (16.33) is 7.05 points better than Texas A&M’s (9.28). And this game is on a neutral floor in Tampa, Florida. They upset the Kentucky Wildcats 69-62 on Saturday.

In the first matchup — at Tennessee — the Vols won 90-80, smashing the over (131.5) with a 170-point total. In that game, Tennessee had an effective field goal percentage of 60.5%.

Ultimately, our model likes the Aggies’ spread (+7.0) as well as over (131.0) as two-star plays.

Richmond Spiders vs. Davidson Wildcats

The Richmond Spiders (6.21) are 89th in our nERD rating and knocked off the Dayton Flyers 68-64 on Saturday.

The Davidson Wildcats (9.21) are 53rd; they bested the Saint Louis Billikens 84-69 in the Atlantic 10 semifinal.

The nERD differential makes for a 3.00-point gap between them. The spread in this game? 3.0 for Davidson.

In their first matchup, Davidson won 87-84. That’s right: by three points.

It stands to reason that the model isn’t giving a pick on the spread. It does, though, lean on Davidson moneyline (-156)as it views them as 62.4% likely to get the win.

The under (138.5) is also a one-star suggestion. Although Davidson has a 56.7% over rate, Richmond’s games have gone over at just a 40.6% clip.

Yes, the first matchup totaled 171 points, but neither side is fast. Via BartTorvik, Richmond ranks 199th in adjusted tempo, and Davidson ranks 316th.

Memphis Tigers vs. Houston Cougars

On Saturday, the Memphis Tigers held off the Southern Methodist Mustangs 70-63 in the American Athletic Conference semis.

The Houston Cougars had a much easier time against the Tulane Green Wavebeating them by 20 (86-66).

Memphis, despite ranking 23rd in our power rankings with a nERD of 11.86, is 2-0 this season against Houston (17.06 nERD, 7th in the nation). They won by double digits in each game, including a 10-point win as a 10-point underdog on February 12th.

Notably, each side has rarely lived up to its own implied total in games (a 41.4% over rate for Memphis and a 31.3% over rate for Houston). Both of their prior matchups stayed under the posted total (by 12.5 and 1.5 points).

The only recommendation in this game is the over (133.5). That’s a three-star suggestion and is rated as 66.0% likely.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers

This is going to be a great game to round out the day.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (15.61) rank 14th in our nERD ratings and took care of the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten semifinal on Saturday.

The Purdue Boilermakers (15.65) are 13th. Purdue beat Michigan State Spartans 75-70 in the semifinal.

As for their nERDs, that’s a gap of 0.04 points, and it explains why the spread is just -1.0 in favor of Purdue.

The Boilermakers are 2-0 in the season series after netting wins of 7 and 10 points, games that totaled 147 and 156 points.

With such a tight game, the only recommendation is a one-star suggestion on the Hawkeyes spread (+1.0).

.

Leave a Comment